Prior Trading Day Summary
On Mon Dec 15 2025 stocks spent the day under selling pressure. Tech names led losses and by the close all indexes were lower.
The S&P closed down just 10 points, recovering from earlier deep dips. Volume was 5.1 billion, an increase of 100 million shares. 48% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ fell 137 points to close at 23,057. Volume was 8.9 billion, with 62% of all stocks on the index falling.
On Tuesday investors get the November jobs report. That report will influence the market action but by the afternoon, I expect the technical indicators will have more influence.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Dec 15 2025 to see what we should expect for Tue Dec 16 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Dec 15 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. The SPX is starting to slip lower.
The closing candlestick is bearish with slight shadows indicating weakness and probable dips on Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average rose on Monday and closed at 6775. The 21 day is almost falling below the 50 day moving average.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6763 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6607 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6359 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling further below the 100 day moving average. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is also bearish.
By the close on Monday there are more bearish signals than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Dec 15 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and only slightly positive which is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Nov 28. On Mon Dec 15 2025 the up signal was almost gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising signaling a higher day should be expected for Tuesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6925 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 16 2025
For Tuesday the November non-farm payroll report is released at 8:30 and is expected to show a drop to just 45,000 jobs created versus 119,000 prior.
If the number is lower, expect a deeper dip, definitely below the 6800 valuation. If the unemployment report shows more jobs created than estimated, the index should move higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey was much weaker than estimated, coming in at -3.9 versus 10.0 expected and 18.7 prior.
10:00 Home builder confidence index rose slightly to 39 from 38.
Tuesday:
8:30 Non-farm payroll reports for Nov released. 45,000 are expected versus 119,000 prior
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated to climb to 4.5% from 4.4% prior
8:30 October retail sales is released which is estimated at 0.2% down slightly from 0.3% prior