Prior Trading Day Summary
On Monday stocks built on Friday’s afternoon advance. The SPX was higher early morning and unable to recover that high. The close though came close, ending with a 27 point advance to close at 4433. This keeps the 4400 level intact for support.
The NASDAQ ended the day up 114 points to end the day at 13,705.
Volumes were well below average for both indexes.
Let’s review the SPX index from Monday to see what to expect for Tue Aug 29 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Aug 28 2023
The index stayed above the 100 day moving average again on Monday but failed to break above the 50 day moving average. This resulted in the 21 day moving average falling below the 50 day by the close. This is a down signal, the first in months.
The closing candlestick on Monday is bullish but it does show some weakness building to the two-day rally. Tuesday should be choppier.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish but the 50 day is turning sideways.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways and could move up above the 100 day should the rally continue for a third day. It fell below the 100 day moving average on Friday. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving lower which advises that more downside lies ahead.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 28 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and negative. It is no longer oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 27. On Mon Aug 28 the down signal lost a lot more strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative. It is no longer oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic still has a weak up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and back positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and back at levels that often sees a bounce.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 29 2023
For Tuesday stocks will see more choppiness. A new down signal on Tuesday by the close could weigh on stocks at least in the morning. The signals for the bulls remain fairly strong but the low volume usually associated with the last week of August can sometimes result in a choppier day than usual. The outlook though is still higher by the close but dips should be expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week’s major events are retail inventories on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. Friday we get the non-farm payroll numbers for August.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index which is expected to be lower by -1.5%
10:00 Job openings are estimated at 9.5 million – a larger number could send stocks higher
10:00 Consumer Confidence for Aug is expected at 116 which is very strong