Prior Trading Day Summary
On Monday stocks spent the day treading water as investors stayed in a holding pattern ahead of NVIDIA earnings due out on Wednesday.
The S&P closed down 27 points to 6439 on 4.1 billion shares traded. 62% of the volume was being traded lower by the close.
The NASDAQ closed down 47 points to 21,449 on 8.7 billion shares traded. 52% of volume was being traded lower and 66% of stocks were falling by the close.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Mon Aug 25 2025 to see what they advise for Tue Aug 26 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Aug 25 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6387 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6277 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6113 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5930 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower and fell below the 50 day moving average. This is negative for stocks at present.
The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 25 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Aug 19 2025. On Mon Aug 25 20255 the down signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling signaling a bounce is unlikely.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Tuesday is likely. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 26 2025
For Tuesday, stocks are set to move primarily sideways as investors continue to wait for NVIDIA earnings due out at the close on Wednesday. Historically when NVIDIA beats estimates the stock, instead of climbing, has sold lower. That means stay cautious on Wednesday while waiting for the earnings.
For Tuesday I am expecting sideways action but with a slight bias lower into the close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders are expected to rise to -4.0% from -9.4% prior
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index for June is expected to dip to 2.3% from 2.8% prior
10:00 Consumer confidence is estimated to fall to 96.5 from 97.2 prior