Prior Trading Day Summary:
Monday saw lower volume with just 3.3 billion shares traded, the lowest volume since July 9. Investors are continuing with their “wait and see” approach and holding capital out of the market while waiting for more signals on what the Fed will do next or when.
The SPX closed flat, virtually unchanged in a choppy day of trading.
The NASDAQ closed up 85 points at 16,745.
On Tuesday investors get earnings from Home Depot (HD) (among other companies) which will give some idea as to how the consumer is doing. As well on Tuesday we get the latest PPI numbers and on Wednesday the latest CPI numbers. Many investors believe the Fed is watching those numbers in their decision-making process for lowering interest rates in September.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Aug 12 2024 to see what the signals advise for Tue Aug 13 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Aug 12 2024
The index held above 5300 for a third day which is bullish, but it was flat which is bearish. That means the close is neutral on Monday.
The closing candlestick is bearish for the start of Tuesday and signals dips are likely.
The 21 day moving average is continuing lower as the sell signal continues for the SPX. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is falling. This is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is flat and closed at 5302 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is slowing its uptrend but still closed higher at 5080 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and falling. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling lower which is also bearish.
The S&P chart is bearish with only the 200 day moving average remaining bullish. All the other technical indicators are pointing lower which indicates the downtrend may not be over.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 12 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising, still negative but not oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thur July 18. On Mon Aug 12 2024 the down signal lost more strength as you can see in the histogram. We might see a move higher by Wednesday or Thursday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising but negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Tuesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is support |
| 5200 is support |
| 5175 is support |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
| 5100 is support |
| 5085 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 13 2024
For Tuesday the technical indicators are mixed with some indicators rising and others unchanged or falling. The PPI numbers today and CPI tomorrow, are important for the rally at this point.
Tuesday could be a choppy day and if the PPI numbers disappoint, the day could be negative. The technical indicators are advising that Tuesday will see dips and end slightly lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
2:00 Monthly federal budget rose as estimated to -241 billion.
Tuesday:
8:30 Producer price index (PPI) is expected to be unchanged at 91.5
8:30 Core PPI os estimated unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated at 2.6%
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is estimated at 3.1%