Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday stocks traded in a tight trading range in a choppy fashion but with a slight bearish bias.
The SPX closed down 10 points to 5243.
The NASDAQ gained 17 points to close at 16,396.
Volumes were low for the first day back after the long Easter weekend. This is bullish for stocks as large volumes on down days is negative for stocks.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Mon Apr 1 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Apr 2 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Apr 1 2024
The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 21 day moving average. After a second day of a similar close this is bearish.
The closing candlestick is still bullish for Tuesday although the closing candlestick is signaling another day of dips lies ahead for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5174 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5056, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4674 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and moving higher which is usually bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend. This is also bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday but the closing candlestick warns for a second day that stocks could dip.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Apr 1 2024 – Chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 28. This signal was unconfirmed before the long weekend. On Monday the signal is neutral. The MACD histogram is negative.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating Tuesday will close lower for stocks.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 2 2024
For Tue Apr 2 2024, the technical indicators are still biased positive with just the closing candlestick having the largest signal advising dips will occur today.
The economic reports on Monday were fairly flat with manufacturing PMI a bit lower along with construction spending. ISM Manufacturing was higher than expected. There was nothing in any of the numbers to alarm investors that interest rates hikes might return. There also was nothing in the numbers to suggest the Fed would cut rates early.
For Tuesday there is nothing major in the economic reports to swing markets. Due to this the bulls still have the advantage but they will have trouble pushing a lot higher. A slightly higher close is anticipated for today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The major event this week is the March non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30.
Monday:
9:45 S&P USA manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.5 but was 51.9
10:00 Consumer spending is expected to rise to 0.7% but fell to -0.3%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to rise to 48.1% from 47.8% prior but rose to 50.3%
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to 1%
10:00 Job openings are expected to slip slightly to 8.8 million from 8.9 million prior.
Auto sales are expected at any time during the day.