Stock Market Outlook for Thurs Oct 12 2017 – Weakness Possible Negative Close

Markets moved higher on Wednesday even with the release of the Fed minutes at 2:00 PM which indicated the Fed remains focused on a December rate hike despite the lack of inflation. In general market movements were small on Wednesday.

Financial stocks dipped slightly on Wednesday ahead of earnings release which begins on Thursday.

S&P 500 Index Close

The S&P index ended up 4.60 to 2555.24

Dow Jones Index Close

The Dow Jones ended up 42.21 to 22,872.89

NASDAQ Index Close

The NASDAQ closed up 16.30 to 6603.55



Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 11 2017

Chart Comments At The Close:

The S&P on Wednesday continued to climb although it is back inside the Lower Bollinger Band. The closing candlestick is bullish for stocks for Thursday.

All the major moving averages and the 21 day are now climbing.

 

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:

Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive but not rising.

MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Aug 31. The buy signal is eroding.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive, overbought and rising.

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought. It has a very weak up signal in place which is almost neutral.

Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.  The RSI signal is showing the market is very overbought.

Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present.  The rate of change signal is positive but falling back.


Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

The S&P has light support at 2480. It has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. There is also light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thursday Oct 12 2017

There are signs that weakness is entering the market place. While all the technical indicators are positive, the majority are signaling weakness.

Thursday could see the S&P dip and by the close it could be negative.

If it is negative on Thursday, it will be temporary and not very deep.


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