Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 7 2023 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely – Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Wednesday rising oil prices again hammered stocks as analysts again turned back to worries about further rate increases. Just a week ago the chance of a September rate hike had dropped from 50% to 15%. On Wednesday it was back to 25% with many analysts predicting rate hikes in October and November. It is true that the price of oil affects just about everything so investor concern is not unwarranted. At the same time though, it is questionable just how much more Fed interest rate hikes can reverse rising oil prices. In my opinion the Fed is near the end of rising rates but that’s just my opinion. There are signs of the consumer slowing purchasing, travel, home buying, home renovating and more. We might find the high rates just need more time to work further through the economy.

The SPX fell 31 points to end the day at 4465. Trading volume was low at 3.5 billion shares which is a good sign for the bulls. Rising volume in a sell-off is more bearish.

The NASDAQ lost 148 points to close at 13,872. Trading volume on the NASDAQ was 4.3 billion, just slightly below average but there were 184 new 52 week lows, the highest number in two weeks and a definite bearish sign.

On Wednesday the Fed’s Beige Book was primarily a non-event with really nothing new for the bulls to build momentum to the upside on.

Let’s review the SPX index from Wed Sep 6 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Sep 7 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 6 2023

The index closed below the 50 day moving average and  touched the 21 day before closing slightly above it. Both are bearish signals.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bearish but also signals that a potential bounce is forming.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band however is clinging to the 100 day which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling. This is bearish.. This indicates a bearish outlook for Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 6 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 7 2023 

The technical indicators are continuing to gain traction to the downside. Rising oil pricing and rising Treasury yields are weighing on stocks. Until we see a change, investors should continue to expect weakness.

For Thursday there are more bearish signals among the technical indicators and in the SPX chart. There are as well some signs that the SPX may try to bounce but at this point, it won’t hold without dropping oil prices and Treasury yields.

On Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims which are expected unchanged at 230,000. That number has been incredibly steady for months and it needs to start to show some weakness which could influence the Fed on delaying further rate hikes.

Also on Thursday we get 6 Fed official speaking at various times and events. That could impact stocks lower.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Fed’s Beige Book was a non-event for the bulls.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 230,000 which continue to show a strong labor market

8:30 US Productivity for the second quarter is expected to be 3.4%

8:30 Unit-labor costs for the second quarter are expected to rise to 1.9%

Thank You – End Of Summer 30% Discount Special

The End Of Summer Special ended early Wednesday with all memberships sold. Thank you for the support you have given to FullyInformed.com and welcome to the many new members.