Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 5 2019 – Choppy With Dips But Higher

Wednesday saw investors shrug off the concerns from Tuesday and push stocks higher as they followed Asian and European markets higher. The rally was the result of news of Hong Kong’s government withdrawing its controversial extradition bill, and of the British Parliament defeating a no-deal Brexit motion.  The move higher today, changed a number of important technical indicators.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Sep 4 2019 

The potential of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze continued to develop on Wednesday which is evident in the chart below. The outcome is not yet known. Stocks could move up or down out of the squeeze.

The 21 day moving average is below 2900 and below the 100 day moving average. There are two down signals in place. The first was Aug 16 and the second was Aug 29.

On Wednesday the 21 day moving average showed signs of turning back up.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.

The 50 day moving average is still falling while the 100 day moving average is slipping below the 2900 level.

The 200 day moving average is trending more sideways now, than climbing.

The S&P chart still looks bearish for Thursday. To signal that the index intends to move higher we want to see it close above 2950 or 2960. The close on Wednesday gave no indication that the index could try to push to 2950 this week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 4 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and back positive..

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thurs Aug 29. The up signal was stronger again on Wednesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a strong up signal in place and is showing some overbought signals.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal rose dramatically on Wednesday which signals that the index could be about to move higher.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is light resistance

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Sep 5 2019 

Technical indicators at Wednesday’s close were doing an “about-face” with no technical indicators pointing lower. Instead MACD, the Rate Of Change and Slow Stochastic have strengthening up signals in place.

Thursday could see dips a bit deeper than expected in choppy trading but dips are opportunities to setup trades as the outlook is back to up for Thursday.

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