Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Sep 3 2025 stocks started the day in a bounce but by the late afternoon investors had sold the bounce lower only to see a rally in the final half hour which pushed the index back positive.
The SPX closed up 32 points almost wiping out Tuesday’s sell-off. The SPX ended that day at 6448. However despite closing higher, 55% of all volume was being traded lower into the close.
The NASDAQ closed up 218 points to 21,497. This wiped out Tuesday’s loss of 175 points. Volume though was low at 7.6 billion shares traded. By the close, 49% of all stocks were still falling.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 3 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Sep 4 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 3 2025
The index closed back above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday as the long shadows indicate dips are likely today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6423 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6333 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6152 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5961 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher while the Upper Bollinger Band is falling. The signs are that a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway and at present, the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is signaling stocks will move lower out of the latest squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Sep 3 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Aug 19 2025. On Wed Sep 3 2025 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Thu Sep 4 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 4 2025
The technical indicators mixed for Thursday but the SPX chart is advising that dips are likely today within choppy trading. Despite those dips, the outlook is still for a higher close as investors prepare for the August non-farm payroll numbers, due out on Friday at 8:30.
The ADP numbers on Thursday could impact stocks lower if the number meets estimates or is lower than 75,000 at 8:15 before the open.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI slipped below estimates to 53.0
10:00 ISM manufacturing rose to 48.7%, higher than estimated
10:00 Construction spending fell lower than estimated to -0.1%
Wednesday:
10:00 Job openings fell to 7.2 million, below estimates
10:00 Factory orders came in as estimated at -1.3%
2:00 Fed Beige Book is released – nothing new in the Fed’s Beige Book.
Thursday:
8:15 ADP employment is estimated to fall to 75,000 from 140,000 prior
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 230,000
8:30 Productivity for second quarter is estimated to rise to 2.8% from 2.4% prior
8:30 Trade deficit for July is estimated to fall to -$77.9 billion
9:45 S&P Final services PMI is estimated to fall to 55.3 down slightly from 55.4 prior
10:00 ISM services are estimated to rise to 50.8% from 50.1% prior