Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wednesday stocks slipped lower intraday and broke through a number of key support levels including the 200 period moving average.
With the SPX down at 4238, buyers finally returned and pushed the index back to Tuesday’s close.
The NASDAQ also closed higher up 29 points to 13092.
Volume rose on both New York and the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ reached just shy of 5 billion shares traded, the 4th highest volume day in September. Often this type of activity supports the start of a bounce.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 27 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Sep 28 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 27 2023
The index closed below the 50, 21 and 100 period moving averages for a fifth day which is bearish. Intraday the index broke below the 200 day and bounced which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is also bullish as it signals extremely overbought and ready to bounce higher.
The closing candlestick closed at the Lower Bollinger Band which is bullish for a bounce.
The 50 period and 21 period moving averages are falling which is bearish. The 200 period moving average is continuing to climb which is bullish. The 100 period moving average is trending sideways which is neutral at present.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. Overall the SPX chart is still signaling that this is a correction and nothing more. We will get a better picture on Thursday whether the market is ready to rally.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
|Momentum: Momentum is falling sharply and negative. It is signaling extremely oversold.|
|MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Sep 18. On Wednesday the down signal was stronger again.|
|Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is leaving oversold.|
|Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for a third day and is extremely oversold.|
|Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and negative. It is oversold.|
|Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and negative.|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels
|4600 is resistance|
|4575 is resistance|
|4550 is resistance|
|4525 is resistance|
|4500 is resistance|
|4485 is resistance|
|4470 is resistance|
|4450 is resistance|
|4435 is resistance|
|4420 is resistance|
|4400 is support|
|4390 is support|
|4370 is support|
|4350 is support|
|4330 is support|
|4325 is support|
|4300 is good support|
|4375 is support|
|4350 is good support|
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 28 2023
For Thursday stocks appear set to bounce higher as long as oil does not continue to climb as well as Treasury yields. Any dip in either and stocks will rally strongly.
All the technical indicators are still advising caution but if a rally can get enough strength it will move higher on the back of those bears who shorted over the past several days and will rush to buy back positions to control losses.
On Thursday the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims will be an important number to watch. A weak number could support those investors who believe the Fed is done or near finished raising interest rates. That will boost stocks. Just remember, watch the price of oil.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week the reports are lighter which could assist the bulls. The most telling report is the PCE Index on Friday.
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
8:30 GDP revision
10:00 Pending home sales
4:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks