Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Sep 24 2025 investors took profits in a number of sectors but overall losses were small and bullishness is still quite evident. Energy stocks in particular continued higher along with gold and some cyclical consumer stocks. Small caps slipped less than 1%.
The SPX fell 19 points to end the day at 6638. Volume was 5.5 billion shares with 62% of all stocks falling by the close.
The NASDAQ fell 75 points to end the day at 22,498. Volume was 9.5 billion shares traded with 56% of all stocks declining by the end of trading.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 24 2025 to see if stocks may try to rebound on Thu Sep 25 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 24 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6551 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 64346which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6266 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6048 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is bearish. At present the outlook suggests the SPX may enter a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze shortly.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Thursday. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 24 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Wed Sep 24 2025 the up signal signal lost a lot of strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling a flat to higher close is expected for Thu Sep 25 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 25 2025
Technical indicators have turned decidedly lower. A number are signaling stronger bearish readings, in particular the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Rate Of Change though is advising we could see some strength return on Thursday. The MACD technical indicator though, lost a lot of the up signal strength on Wednesday. We could see it turn negative today or Friday. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze looks to possibly be in the early stages of developing.
With many stocks moving lower there are still many that are rising. Alibaba Stock (BABA) moved higher on Wednesday after announcing a $50 billion stock buyback. It closed up 8.19% to $176.44. For members, a trade idea is in today’s morning Investing Strategy Notes.
For Thu Sep 25 2025 dips are still likely but we could see a flat to slightly lower or slightly higher close. New home sales were excellent on Wednesday and that could help spark a rebound today in stocks.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no economic reports
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI came in slightly better than estimated at 53.9
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was better than estimated coming in at 52.0
12:35 Fed Chair Powell speaks
Wednesday:
10:00 New Home Sales jumped to 800,000, far above estimated of 650,000
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 235,000 from 231,000 prior
8:30 GDP is estimated at 3.3% unchanged for the quarter
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is estimated at $-75 billion
8:30 Advanced retail inventories are estimated to stay unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories are estimated to stay unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 Durable goods orders are estimated to rise to -0.4% from -2.8% prior
10:00 Existing home sales are estimated to fall to 3.96 million from 4.01 million prior