Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Sep 17 2025, Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent. The highly anticipated rate cut did not get a rise out of the market on Wednesday.
The SPX fell 6 points to close at 6600 on 5.9 billion shares traded. 58% of the volume was moving higher by the close but only 49% of stocks.
The NASDAQ ended lower by 72 points to 22,271. Volume rose to 9.6 billion shares traded. 59% of all volume was being traded higher but only 45% of all stocks were rising by the close.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 17 2025 to see if the rate cut can spur stocks to rally on Thu Sep 18 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 17 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is however is bearish but with two long shadows which signal a spike or dip is likely on Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6494 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6406 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6225 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6017 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but the closing candlestick is signaling a choppy day is likely on Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 17 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Wed Sep 17 2025 the up signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling from being overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close is expected for Thu Sep 18 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 18 2025
For Thursday, the technical indicators are advising the day will be choppy. There is a good chance for a lower close but investors were pleased that the Fed gave some direction for two further rate cuts this year. That could help the index close higher on Thursday.
The technical indicators though are overwhelmingly bearish after Wednesday’s session. They are signaling stocks will ends the day lower on Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Empire State manufacturing survey fell sharply to -9.7 which is far deeper than estimated
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales rose to 0.6%, well above estimates
8:30 Import price index is estimated at -0.2% versus 0.4% prior
9:15 Industrial production was stronger than estimated, at 0.3%
9:15 Capacity utilization came in as estimated at 77.4%, up slightly from 77.3% prior.
10:00 Business inventories came in as estimated at 0.2%.
10:00: Home builder confidence index came in slightly lower at 32 versus 33 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts were lower than estimated at 1.31 million
8:30 Building permits were lower than estimated, coming in at 1.31 million
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision came in with a quarter percent rate cu t
2:30 Fed Chair Powell holds his news conference
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 240,000
10:00 Leading economic indicators are estimated to fall to -0.2%