Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 12 2024 – Producer Price Index Report

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Anyone who questions whether stocks are an emotional commodity need only look at Wednesday’s trading. The CPI number was released and from the start of trading investors sold stocks steadily into a plunge that ended at 10:50 with the SPX down to 5406. From there investors turned around and bought stocks recovery the entire morning loss and ending the day up 58 points for a 1% gain. The SPX closed at 5554 a 148 point rally from the morning low.

The NASDAQ saw a repeat performance with the index falling to 16,787 and then rallying to close up 369 points for a 2.17% gain to end at 17,395. From the day’s low the NASDAQ rallied 608 points. It was an incredible roller coaster ride on Wednesday.

Today, a number of analysts are warning of a potential second sell-off with the release of the latest Producer Price Index numbers which are released at 8:30 along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Thursday could be volatile.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Sep 11 2024 to see what the signals advise for Thu Sep 12 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Sep 11 2024

The index closed at the 21 day moving average which is bullish.

The closing candlestick has a long shadow which often signals a sell-off or drop in the morning today.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5551. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5507. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5387 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5167 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turned lower. This is bearish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday but Wednesday’s closing candlestick is a significant warning of a possible morning drop.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Sep 11 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 12 2024 

For Thursday the Producer Price Index report will hold the most influence on the market, certainly in the morning.

If the numbers are in-line with estimates then the technical indicators will have more of a say in market direction and they are pointing higher.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is a warning with a long shadow. Often this signals a drop or a dip to start the day. For Thursday watch for the Producer Price Index numbers and check the futures just before the open. The technical indicators however point to a higher close on Thursday if the PPI numbers are flat.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Wholesale inventories were expected to rise slightly to 0.3%but fell to 0.2%

3:00 Consumer credit rose to $25.5 billion from $5.2 billion.

Tuesday:

6:00 AM NFIB optimism index was expected to come in at 98.6, but came in at 91.2 showing a decline in optimism.

Wednesday:

8:30: Consumer Price Index came in as estimated at 0.2%

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in lower than estimated at 2.5%

8:30 Core CPI rose more than estimated to 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was unchanged at 3.2%

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 225,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to rise slightly to 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to drop slightly to 0.2%

8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated to drop to 2.1%