Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Oct 1 2025 investors shook off the lower employment report and used the disappointing ADP numbers to point to the Fed as rushing in and lowering interest rates later this month. That outlook brought in more buyers.
The SPX rose 22 points to end the day at 6711. Volume was still 6.1 billion. There were 160 new highs and 39 new lows. By the close 57% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ rose 95 points to end the day at 22,755. Volume was 10.4 billion. By the close, 56% of all stocks on the index were rallying.
With October starting in the green the question on everyone’s mind is whether the rally can continue, or will pullback.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Oct 1 2025 to see if stocks will continue their advance on Thu Oct 2 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 1 2025
The index rallied higher and closed above the 21 day moving average but still below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday. The closing shadow on the candlestick, signals dips likely in the morning but a higher close is anticipated.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6598 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6482 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6304 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6078 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is also bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish ffor the second day of October. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review for Wed Oct 1 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Sep 25 2025. On Wed Oct 1 2025 a new unconfirmed up signal was generated.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is no longer overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling a higher close is likely today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 2 2025
Wednesday was far stronger than first realized. The SPX closed almost at the all-time high. All the signals are supportive of the index rallying further on Thursday although a morning dip is likely. However dips at present are still opportunities to setup trades, despite stocks being overbought. There could be some weakness on Thursday, especially yin the morning as investors try to figure out if the September jobless numbers will be released on Friday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Pending home sales were much stronger than estimated, coming in at 4.0%
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index dipped more than expected, falling to 1.8%
9:45 Chicago business barometer was lower than estimated, coming in at 40.6
10:00 Job openings are rose to 7.2 million.
10:00 Consumer confidence came in at 94.2.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment was far worse than expected coming in at -32,000.
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.0
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 222,000 from 218,000 prior
10:00 Factory orders are expected to turn positive at 1.4%