Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Nov 5 2025 investors were back picking through stocks that had been beaten up in Tuesday’s pullback. The day ended higher but the MACD technical indicator still issued an unconfirmed down signal. The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) technical indicator has been one of the more reliable indicators over the past few years. While the down signal is unconfirmed, other indicators are also supporting the outlook despite Wednesday’s bounce.
The SPX ended the day up 24 points to 6796 but the SPX was higher intraday. Volume was good at 6.0 billion which was higher than Tuesday’s sell-off of 5.8 billion. 67% of all stocks were rising which was the exact same percentage that were falling on Tuesday, 67%.
The NASDAQ rose 151 points to close at 23499. Volume was 10.4 which was 100 million below Tuesday’s volume. 63% of stocks were rising. On Tuesday 74% of stocks were falling which means on Wednesday, not all stocks that fell were recovering.
The volume numbers at present advise that Wednesday was a bounce and not a strong one.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Nov 5 2025 to see what to expect for market direction on Thu Nov 6 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 5 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday with another long shadow which presently is signaling a lower morning on Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6749 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6660 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6480 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6227 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average but starting to turn higher which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is sideways which is bearish.
The SPX chart is mixed with as many bearish signals as we had at yesterday’s close.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 5 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and only slightly positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Oct 24 2025. On Wed Nov 5 2025 the up signal was gone, replaced by an unconfirmed down signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising slightly, signaling Wednesday was a bounce.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling Wednesday was a bounce. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 6 2025
For Thu Nov 6 2025 the technical indicators have shifted to a bearish stance. The MACD technical indicator has an unconfirmed down signal but the outlook is for that signal to be confirmed today. The ADP employment numbers were much stronger than anticipated and show the economy is still growing.
The SPX chart has shifted to more bearish and the technical indicators are supporting the bearish outlook. Stocks will have to move higher for more than one day to rebuild the damage done on Tuesday.
Wednesday looks bearish for the morning but the afternoon could see an attempt to close higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Durable goods orders – No reports will be released Monday due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Tuesday:
No reports will be released today due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment came in much higher than expected at 42,000 versus -29,000 prior
9:45 S&P final services PMI came in at 54.8 down from 55.2 prior.
10:00 ISM services came in at 52.4% up from 50.0% prior
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
8:30 Productivity
None of these reports are expected to be released due to the government shutdown