Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday saw another wild ride with the index opening and falling thanks in large part to stunning poor quarterly earnings from Target. It’s stock fell a staggering $33.16 for a loss of 21.41%. The stock closed at $121.72. Intraday it made a new 52 week low of $120.21. This is definitely a low point for the company and could see some management shake-up but the stock in October 2023 was lower as it traded around $106. This is the worst one day plunge for the stock in more than 10 years. Even in the 2008 – 2009 credit crisis it didn’t see a one day loss of this magnitude according to my records which go back to 2005 when I started to trade in the stock. Back then the stock paid a dividend of 8 cents a quarter. Today it is $1.12. Investors though were stunned as they dumped stock. Normally the daily average is around 4.7 million shares. Today 64 million shares traded hands.
Surprisingly though the low around 10:21 at 5860 marked the end of the sell-off. In the final hour investors piled back into stocks and the index closed flat on the day, up 0.13 to 5917.
The NASDAQ had a rough day but again the close saw only a small loss of 21 points to close at 18,966.
After hours on Wednesday investors got earnings from NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Snowflake Stock (SNOW) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) among others. Overall I thought earnings were good but after hours investors were selling NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Snowflake Stock (SNOW) soared.
Let reviews the close on Wed Nov 20 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Nov 21 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 20 2024
The index failed to break below the 21 day moving average which is a bullish signal.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow which in this case often signals selling pressure for the upcoming day but still a chance for a lower or flat close.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5868 This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5796. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5661 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5418 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to rise which is bullish.
The S&P chart is somewhat bullish for Thursday but there are signs the index may test below the 21 day if selling erupts.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 20 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Nov 18 2024. The down signal gained more strength which is readily evident in the histogram.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising slightly.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has the start of an up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which signals a higher close is expected for Thursday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is rsistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5815 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 21 2024
For Thursday we get to see investor reaction to NVIDIA, Snowflake and Palo Alto Networks earnings. After hours NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) and Palo Alto Networks shares were falling. I think any selling in both stocks is an opportunity tos setup trades. Earnings were decent and some of the selling was certainly “sell the news” type activity. Buyers for NVIDIA Stock were evident after the close so I don’t think the stock will plunge on the earnings.
For Thursday dips are probable and a close below the 21 day moving average would be bearish. I don’t think that’s going to happen but there will be dips to watch and a chance for a lower close. The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are released at 8:30. They bear watching for any surprise. They are expected to come in at 220,000 which is up 3,000 from last week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Home builder confidence index beat the estimate and rose to 46 from 43.
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing Starts came in lower to 1.31 million from 1.35 million prior
8:30 Building permits were lower than estimated at 1.42 million.
Wednesday:
No economic reports
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 220,000 up from last week.
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is expected to come in at 6.0 quite a drop from 10.3 prior
10:00 Leading home sales are estimated to have risen to 3.91 million from 3.84 million
10:00 Leading economic index is expected to slip slightly to -0.4% from -0.3% prior