Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wednesday stocks bounced from being oversold. Intraday the S&P came close to reaching the 50 day moving average but fell back. The S&P still managed to close up 24 points to 6642.
Volume was 5.1 billion with 63% of all volume still moving lower by the close and 60% of stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ rose 131 points to close at 22,564. Volume was unchanged at 8.8 billion shares. 55% of all volume was being traded lower and 58% of all stocks on the index were falling.
Despite the weakness though, both indexes closed positive and have helped to setup for a second bounce attempt. After hours on Wednesday NVIDIA released better than estimated earnings and indicated demand for chips is incredibly high. This news should help boost equities on Thursday.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Nov 19 2025 to see what investors should expect on Thu Nov 20 2025..
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 19 2025
The index closed below at the Lower Bollinger Band and below the 50 day moving average but with a long shadow which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish pointing to a potential for a large bounce to start the day.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 6778 which is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6712 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6526 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6276 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is at the 50 day moving average and falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising signaling the market is falling. This is bearish.
The SPX chart has more bearish signals for Thursday but signals for a second bounce are in place.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 19 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wed Nov 5. On Wed Nov 19 2025 the down signal was stronger again and at levels where a bounce should be expected.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a sharp down signal. It is now at oversold levels.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising and at oversold levels where a bounce is likely. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 20 2025
For Thu Nov 20 2025 signals are still strongly pointing to a second bounce attempt. With NVIDIA earnings released on Wednesday showing strong chip demand and better than estimated earnings, this should assist stocks in a bounce.
Meanwhile before the open investors get September jobs numbers which were delayed. As long as the jobs numbers don’t surprise to the downside, a bounce is highly likely for Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey stunned analysts coming in at 18.7, three times higher than estimates of 5.5
Tuesday:
9:15 Industrial production no data released
10:00 Factory orders rose 1.4%, better than expected
10:00 Home builder confidence index rose to 38 from 37 prior.
Wednesday:
8:30 US Trade deficit was lower than expected at -$59.6 billion versus -$78.2 billion prior
Thursday:
8:30 September Non-Farm Payroll Numbers are estimated at 50,000
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated unchanged at 4.3%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated at 0.3%
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Nov 15 are estimated at 227,000
10:00 Existing home sales are estimated to rise to 4.1 million from 4.06 million prior