Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 2 2023 – Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Wednesday stocks rallied as Fed Chair Powell announced no new rate increase. As well, the outlook from the Fed was unchanged from September’s outlook. As Treasury yields pulled back stocks move higher.

The SPX rose 44 points to closed at 4237.

The NASDAQ climbed 210 points, closing at 13,061.

Trading volumes were good with 4.3 billion shares traded on the S&P, 58% of which was to the upside. 66% of all stocks were moving higher.

The NASDAQ saw 4.6 billion shares traded with 61% of the volume to the upside and 50% of all stocks advancing.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Nov 1 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Nov 2 2023 as investors prepare for Apple earnings after the close on Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 1 2023

The index closed below all major moving averages which is bearish. The closing candlestick ended the day above 4200 which is bullish.

The closing candlestick shows the index as overbought and heading into some resistance starting at 4250 on the SPX.

The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all falling which is bearish. The 21 day moving average is at the 200 day and looks set to fall below the 200 day on Thursday. Remember that this is a trailing indicator which means if the bounce continues, we will see the 21 day move back above the 200 day fairly quickly.

The Lower Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which often indicates another move may be coming soon.

The S&P chart is bearish but indicates the bounce still has some room to run higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 1 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 2 2023 

On Wednesday the third day of the bounce has turned all the technical indicators higher. Even the MACD down signal is almost gone as of Wednesday’s close.

With Fed Chair Powell sounding very dovish on Wednesday during his news conference, the market is set to move still higher. Bond yields dipped lower which helped support the bounce.

On Thursday stocks could slip early in the day but the outlook remains positive and higher for stocks.

On Thursday morning investors get a number of economic reports that will give some clue as to the ongoing strength of the economy.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

On Friday investors get to hear the October non-farm payroll numbers.

Monday:

There are no economic reports

Tuesday:

8:15 ADP unemployment report

9:45 S&P manufacturing

9:45 Chicago Business Barometer is expected at 45.3 up from 44.1

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected at 100.0 versus 103.0

Wednesday:

1:00 Automatic Data Processing Stock (ADP)

9:45 S&P manufacturing i index.

10:00 Job openings

10:00 ISM manufacturing

10:00 Job opening

10:00 ISM manufacturing

10:00 Construction spending

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 214,000

8:30 Productivity is estimated to rise to 4.3% from 3.5%

8:30 Unit-labor costs are expected to dip to 0.7% from 2.2%

10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to 2.5% from 1.2%