Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed May 29 2024 the SPX opened lower and spent the day trading below 5300. Volume was overwhelmingly negative with 82% of all trades being made to the downside and 79% of all stocks falling. By the close the SPX was down 39 points to end the day at 5266.
The NASDAQ fared a bit better with 62% of all volume traded lower and 69% of all stocks falling. The NASDAQ closed at 16,920 down 99 points which wiped out all of Tuesday’s gains.
Let review the closing technical signals from Wed May 29 2024 to see how what to expect for Thu May 30 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 29 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the 50 day but back at levels seen last Thursday (May 23).
The closing candlestick is bearish and points to a possible bounce which will not hold on Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4839 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5052.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and rising which is bullish. If the Lower Bollinger Band crosses above the 100 day moving average it will be another up signal. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher. This is also bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish but signals at the close show a strong possibility of a lower close on Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 29 2024 – Chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri May 3. The up signal is continuing to lose strength which you can also see in the declining histogram. The histogram is almost ready to turn negative.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Thursday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is light support |
| 5175 is light support |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
| 5115 is support |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 30 2024
The technical indicators for Thursday are split with most being bearish for Thursday. The closing candlestick on Wednesday signaled a chance for a bounce on Thursday but the technical indicators are not oversold enough for a bounce to hold. The Fed’s Beige Book proved fruitless for those investors hoping for an interest rate cut in June and probably July. Thursday has a number of economic reports but it is Friday’s PCE numbers which are of the most interest. For Thursday stocks are set to close lower ahead of Friday’s PCE numbers. The PCE numbers if low enough could spark a rally higher but until then the outlook is lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
On Wednesday the Fed’s Beige Book was released. That caused some volatility. Friday we get the latest PCE numbers. Those numbers could swing the markets.
Monday:
Memorial Day
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to be unchanged at 7.3%
10:00 Consumer Confidence is expect to slip to 96.0 from 97.0 prior
Wednesday:
2:00 Fed Beige Book
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 218,000
8:30 First revision of GDP is estimated at 1.2%
10:00 Pending home sales are expected to fall to -0.4% from 3.4%