Prior Trading Day Summary:
Stocks slipped in the later afternoon on Wed May 28 2025 as the Trump administration reportedly stopped some US Chip designers and software makers to stop selling to China. As well home builders fell as the 30 year moved above 5% which analysts believe will further slow the housing market.
By the close the SPX was down 33 points to 5888 on 4.7 billion shares traded. By the close, 73% of stocks on New York were falling.
The NASDAQ dropped 98 points to close at 19100. Volume was lower than yesterday, at 8.8 billion shares traded. By the close 66% of stocks were falling.
After the close on Wednesday, NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) moved higher on better than estimated earnings along with Salesforce.com Stock (CRM) which also saw its stock rising after beating estimates with its latest earnings. Meanwhile a Federal Trade Court late Wednesday, blocked reciprocal tariffs the Trump Administration had imposed. That move saw stocks markets climb ahead of Thursday’s opening.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Wed May 28 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu May 29 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 28 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. IIt slipped on Wednesday which is evident in the chart below.
The closing candlestick is still bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5777 which is bullish. At the close on Friday Mar 23, the 21 day moved further above the 100 day. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5594 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5720 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5666 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish and ends any potential Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.
For Thu May 29 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish and is signaling Wednesday’s dip will not be carried into Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 28 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and barely positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Wed May 28 2025 the up signal is pretty well gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falliong.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5785 is resistance |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 29 2025
Intraday on Wednesday the FOMC minutes suggest the Fed is in no rush to lower interest rates using “uncertainty” over tariffs as the reason. It now looks less likely the Fed will lower rates until August or September at the earliest. Considering how long it takes for an interest rate reduction to work its way through the economy, the Fed may find keeping rates high is a mistake, but I’m not an economist. I do believe a strong housing market is part of a strong economy and present interest rates continues to plague the housing market.
For Thu May 29 2025 only one technical indicator is moving higher, the Slow Stochastic. The remaining indicators are falling and signaling weakness is likely. MACD could give a down signal by the close on Thursday which would be a bit of a concern.
That said, the opening signals for Thursday are pointing to a higher day, especially following excellent earnings from NVIDIA as well as a number of other companies, including Salesforce. The Federal Trade Court ruling also is a short-term bump for stocks.
For Thursday, we could see volatility. The opening will be higher and followed by profit-taking before moving higher again later in the day. The close will be still higher than Wednesday’s close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Holiday
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders fell less than expected by -6.3%
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index was better than estimated, coming in at 4.1%
10:00 Consumer confidence jumped past estimates and rose to 98, showing growing consumer confidence
Wednesday:
2:00 Minutes of FOMC May meeting are released. I expect this will be a non-event today.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise slightly to 230,000
8:30 GDP 1st revision is estimated at -0.4%
10:00 Pending home sales are expected to fall to -1.0% from 6.1% prior