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Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 23 2024 – Higher Thanks To NVIDIA Earnings

May 23, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - HigherPrior Trading Day Summary:

On Wed May 22 2024 NVIDIA released stellar earnings beating all estimates as well as prior earnings for the same quarter last year. The company announced a 10 to 1 stock split and strong forward guidance. After hours the stock soared.

Let review the closing technical signals from Wed May 22 2024 to see whether NVIDIA earnings are enough to propel the indexes higher on Thursday.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 22 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the 50 day and continued moving primarily sideways.

The closing candlestick is bullish.

The 21 day moving average continued climbing above the 50 day continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4821 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5033.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher. This is also bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 22 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri May 3. The up signal lost some strength on Wed May 22 2024.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and not overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is no longer overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling the day may end lower on Thursday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5310 is resistance
5300 is resistance
5275 is resistance
5250 is resistance
5225 is resistance
5200 is resistance
5190 is light support
5175 is light support
5150 is support
5125 is support
5115 is support
5100 is support
5075 is support
5050 is support
5025 is support
5000 is light support


Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 23 2024 

For Thursday the earnings from NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) should be more than enough to push stocks higher. In particular the semiconductor sector should rise today,

Inflation concerns expressed on Wednesday in the FOMC minutes will be forgotten today.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

On Wednesday we get May’s FOMC minutes. That may end up being the most significant economic event this week.

Monday:

There are no reports released today.

Tuesday:

There are no reports released today.

Wednesday:

10:00 Existing home sales were expected to rise slightly to 4.21 million but fell to 4.14 million down from 4.22 million.

2:00 FOMC minutes for May’s meeting.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims id estimated at 220,000

9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated at 51.6

9:45 S&P flash services Manufacturing is estimated at 50

10:00 New home sales are expected at 675,000 down from 693,000

 

 






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