Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed May 20 2026 bond yields declined along with oil prices as the President indicated the administration was in the final stage of a deal with Iran. That sparked a widespread rally ahead of earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA).
The S&P recovered all the past two days of losses as it rose 79 points leaving the week with a 24 point gain. The SPX closed at 7432. Volume was unchanged at 5.5 billion but by the close 74% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ rose 399 points to close at 26,270. and turning the week positive Volume dipped to 9.6 billion. Into the close 71% of all stocks on the index were rising.
The question for Thu May 21 2026 is whether the rally on Wednesday is a one day event or a return to the indexes climbing into new highs.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed May 20 2026 to see what they predict for Thu May 21 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 20 2026
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7296. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6958. This is bullish as the 50 day moved above the 100 day.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6955. Thit is bullish with the 100 day below the 50 day.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6752. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is climbing which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is climbing which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday..
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 20 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue May 19 2026. On Wed May 20 2026 the down signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising which is bullish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising and signaling a higher close is likely. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is resistance |
| 7280 is resistance |
| 7250 is resistance |
| 7230 is resistance |
| 7200 is resistance |
| 7190 is resistance |
| 7175 is resistance |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is support |
| 7050 is support |
| 7000 is support |
| 6950 is support |
| 6900 is support |
| 6875 is support |
| 6850 is support |
| 6800 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 21 2026
NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) reported excellent earnings and announced a huge $80 billion share repurchase after the close on Wednesday. The company earnings widely beat all estimates. The quarterly dividend was raised from 1 cent to 25 cents for a historic hike.
For Thursday expect the stock to try to rally and probably dip. This has been the case in recent earnings reports from NVIDIA. However a few days out I expect the stock will be higher. On dips today I will be placing trades in the stock.
Also on Wednesday we got a confirmed down signal from the MACD technical indicator. This may foreshadow selling Friday or sometime next week.
For today however the SPX will see some selling but for the indexes, stocks are expected to end higher.
Memorial Day Membership Special
For the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend there will be a membership special. Details will be posted after the close on Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports are expected
Tuesday:
10:00 Pending home sales were better than estimated coming in at 1.4%
Wednesday:
2:00 Minutes of Fed’s May FOMC meeting
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 210,000
8:30 Housing starts are estimated for April to fall to 1.42 million
8:30 Building permits for April are expected to rise to 1.39 million up from 1.37 million prior
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated at 51.5 up from 51. prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to fall to 53.7 down from 54.5 prior