Prior Trading Day Summary
On Fri May 15 2026 the overbought condition finally stopped the advance as bond yields rose and many felt the Chinese Summit meeting did not accomplish anything positive on the Strait of Hormuz. That helped push oil prices higher on Friday. Between rising bond yields and rising oil prices, investors finally decided to take profits.
The S&P fell 93 points to close at 7408. Volume rose to 5.7 billion with 76% of all stocks falling into the close. For the week the index squeaked out a small 9 point gain.
The NASDAQ fell 410 points to close at 26,225. Volume fell on the NASDAQ to 9.9 billion. Into the close 72% of all stocks on the index were falling. Chip stocks in general saw strong declines but they have risen the most so a large decline has been anticipated for over a week. For the week the index lost 22 points.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri May 15 2026 to see what they predict for Mon May 18 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri May 15 2026
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7253. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6921. This is bullish but still below the 100 day moving average.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6928. Each day that the 100 day is above the 50 day is a sign of underlying weakness to the uptrend.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6733. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band had stopped climbing which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday but the index looks ready to try a bounce. That bounce is expected to fail and the index close lower.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 15 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Apr 7 2026. On Fri May 15 2026 the up signal lost strength. A down signal is likely for Monday by the close.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is extremely overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling and signaling a lower close is likely. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is resistance |
| 7280 is resistance |
| 7250 is resistance |
| 7230 is resistance |
| 7200 is resistance |
| 7190 is resistance |
| 7175 is resistance |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is support |
| 7050 is support |
| 7000 is support |
| 6950 is support |
| 6900 is support |
| 6875 is support |
| 6850 is support |
| 6800 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 18 2026
For Mon May 18 2026 the outlook is for a lower open followed by a bounce attempt. The bounce may help but the outlook is for a lower close on Monday.
There is little support in the SPX at present levels. This usually means lots of volatility, wide swings in many stock prices and deeper dips than anticipated.
On Tuesday we get earnings from Home Depot and Toll Brothers which give a good idea how the consumer is doing. On Wednesday we get NVIDIA earnings, probably the most important earnings to date for the SPX. We also get Target earnings on Wednesday and Walmart and John Deere on Thursday. Any misses and we will see further volatility. This should be an exciting week leading to the long Memorial Day Weekend.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports are expected