Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 6 2025 – Volatile But Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday stocks attempted a bounce, again. This is all about tariffs and what they may or may not cause to the economy. On Wednesday, when it looked like there was room for some concessions, stocks shot higher.

The S&P ended the day up 64 points to close at 5842, just below the 5850 support level. 74% of all volume was advancing by the close and 65% of all stock were rising.

The NASDAQ saw 7.2 billion shares traded with 76% of that volume to the upside. 68% of all stocks on the index were rising by the close. The index moved up 267 points to close at 18,552.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Wed Mar 5 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Mar 6 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 5 2025

The index moved higher on Wednesday and managed to close almost at the same valuation as where Tuesday opened. This s somewhat bullish but points more to a bounce than any new uptrend developing.

The closing candlestick indicates Thursday will see some dips but could close higher.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 6010 which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5988 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5912 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5708 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending higher which is bullish. If it turned and moves lower this will be bearish for the index overall.

For Thursday the SPX chart is still bearish and indicates that Wednesday was just a bounce from being oversold. There is still a chance the index may revisit the 200 day moving average.

SPX Stock Market Outlook of Wed Mar 5 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 6 2025 

For Thursday stocks are still somewhat oversold so there could be some buying, especially in the morning. The technical indicators are still showing there is weakness in the market and a good chance the SPX will retest the 200 day moving average.

Thursday is the day before the February non-farm payroll numbers. Normally the day is a positive one as investors position for the numbers being released Friday at 8:30.

For Thursday watch for dips and stay cautious. If setting up trades in the dips, stay with small positions and keep capital aside in case stocks fall lower on Friday. Today I expect a somewhat volatile day with dips but a somewhat flat closing.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated lower at 50.1 versus 51.6 prior

10:00 Construction spending is expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.5% prior

10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected lower at 50.6% versus 50.9% prior

No fixed time: Auto sales are estimated at 15 million, down from 15.6 million prior

Tuesday:

There are no economic reports

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment report was expected to show 148,000 jobs but came in at 77,000

9:45 S&P final services PMI came in higher than expected at 51%

10:00 Factory orders rose to 1.7% a surprise 1.6%

10:00 ISM services rose to 53.5% again unexpected

2:00 Fed’s Beige Book

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 235,000

8:30 US Productivity is estimated at 1.2%

8:30 US trade deficit if projected to rise to -128.78 billion

10:00 Wholesale inventories are estimated to rise to 0.5%