It took just a few words from Fed Chair Powell to send stocks higher on Wednesday. His comment on anticipating a quarter point increase in the Fed’s fund rate in March rather than half a point was all it took for stocks to shoot higher and stay higher.
It was a positive day but unusual for the Fed Chair to let slip his interest rate decision early. Whatever the case it was what the market needed to stop the selling and the S&P ended the day up 1.8% for an 80 point gain to close at 4386.
The NASDAQ rose 219 points to close at 13752 for a 1.6% gain.
The action on the S&P was strong enough that a new unconfirmed up signal was generated intraday by the MACD technical indicator.
Let’s review the action from Wednesday to see what investors should prepare for, on Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Mar 2 2022
The S&P chart moved higher on Wednesday and closed just below the 200 day moving average. The closing candlestick is bullish but also indicates investors should watch for morning selling. Any selling on Thursday though is an opportunity to setup more trades.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower while the Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to fall. This is bearish.
The 21 day moving average has stopped falling but the 50 and 100 day are still falling.
The 200 day moving average is still holding the 4400 level which is also bullish.
The chart remains predominantly negative but as we saw on Wednesday, there are still a handful of bullish signals.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 2 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is negative and rising.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a confirmed down signal on Thursday Feb 17 2022 last week. On Wed Mar 2 2022 an unconfirmed up signal was generated. Note as well that the MACD histogram is rising, which is also bullish.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising back to being overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place for Thursday
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving higher again.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4500 is resistance
4490 is light resistance
4475 is light resistance
4450 is light support
4400 is good support and the 200 day moving average
4370 is light support
4350 is light support
4300 is good support
4290 is light support
4270 is light support
4250 is good support
4225 is light support
4200 is good support
4150 is good support
4000 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Mar 3 2022
For Thursday the index should build on Wednesday’s rally. The unconfirmed MACD up signal needs another higher day on Thursday to confirm that the next move with be back higher. There is a good chance we will get that confirmation as the sentiment is changing to bullish at present.
While it is unlikely that the selling is completely over, we should see some gains for perhaps the next two days in the SPX.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
