Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying.

The S&P closed down 64 points to 5712 but on declining volume of 4.2 billion shares. Down volume was heavier at 63% and only 35% of stocks were rising. For the week though, the S&P is still up 44 points.

The NASDAQ closed down 372 points ending the day at 17899. Volume was high at 9.4 billion shares as many investors moved once more out of tech stocks after just 3 days of a rally. 66% of all stocks were falling by the close. For the week the NASDAQ is still up 115 points.

The NASDAQ closed up 83 points to end the day at 18271. New 52 week lows rose to 164 from 102 yesterday and 57% of all volume was moving lower along with 59% of stocks.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Wed Mar 26 2025 to see how stocks will move on Thu Mar 27 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 26 2025

The index closed back at the 200 day and 21 day for a test of the 200 day moving average. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick has two short shadows at the close. This is a cautionary signal advising a bounce is probable today, but it probably won’t hold.

The 21 day moving average is back falling and closed at 5726 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal. It is near the 200 day. If it moves below the 200 day it will be a third down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5910 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5849 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5702 for a fourth day which is neutral.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling is ending. We may see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week and a move higher.

For Thursday the SPX chart is showing fewer bullish signs with stronger bearish signals.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 26 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 

For Thursday the MACD technical indicator is still bullish but most of the other technical indicators are back turning lower.

On Wednesday the SPX tested the 200 day moving average which was expected. However I had expected a bounce off the 200 day and that did not happen. Instead the close warned that the SPX may attempt a bounce but could easily close below the 200 day on Thursday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P flash services PMI rose more than estimated to 54.3 from 51.0 prior

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI dropped more than estimated to 49.8 from 52.7 prior

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case Shiller home price index irose higher than estimated at 4.7% from 4.5% prior

10:00 Consumer confidence dipped to 92.9 from 100.1 prior indicating some concerns from consumers.

10:00 New home sales rose more than estimated to 676,000 from 657,000 prior

Wednesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders were higher than estimated at 0.9% but still down from 3.3% prior

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise modestly to 226,000 from 223,000 prior

8:30 GOP (second revision) is estimated unchanged at 2.3%

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is estimated at -$155 billion

8:30 Advanced retail inventories are estimated to slip to -0.2%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories are estimated to rise to 0.9%

10:00 Pending home sales are expected to rise 1.0%