Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Mar 19 2025 stocks ended the day higher on a fairly broad-based rally caused by the Fed’s news conference where the Fed Chair intimated the Fed would be there for equities should “something be needed”. That was all investors needed to hear to get back into stocks. The index managed to move above 5700 before closing at 5675, up 60 points or basically gaining back Tuesday’s sell-off which was also 60 points. Volume was still low at 4.7 billion shares traded but 71% of all stocks were higher by the close.
The NASDAQ rose 246 points, not quite recovering Tuesday’s drop of 304 points. The index closed at 17750. Volumes were lower again, at 6.5 billion shares traded but 69% of all stocks were rising by the close.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Wed Mar 19 2025 to see if stocks can continue the rally and move above the 200 day moving average on Thu Mar 20 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 19 2025
The index closed higher and managed to reach the 200 day in the afternoon before closing below it. This is still bearish but a good sign for stocks.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow which suggests a bit of weakness in the morning but a higher close. This is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5801 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5928 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5863 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5702 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is fturning sideways whichwhile bearish, is a potential signal that the next move could be higher for the index. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sharply lower which may signal a chance the selling is ending.
For Wednesday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and a bit oversold. A lower open is likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 19 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal was weaker on Wed Mar 19 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is not oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close is expected. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 20 2025
Technical indicators are starting to show some strength although almost all are still negative. The MACD indicator is weaker again on Wednesday and if the SPX closes higher on Thursday we will see the down signal almost gone.
The technical signals are advising that stocks may try to rally for a few days following the Fed’s news conference on Wednesday afternoon.
For Thursday the economic reports are all expected to show more weakness which fits the outlook by most analysts that the economy continues to slow. However the Fed did not agree with that outlook and felt the economy was stronger than analysts were estimating. Powell also indicated the Fed has been slowing the reduction of their balance sheet which means better liquidity for stocks.
On Thursday the open could be higher followed by a dip but then another attempt to retake the 200 day moving average. A close above the 200 day will be bullish.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Retail sales rose 0.2% missing estimates of 0.6%
8:30 Retail sales minus autos rose to 0.3% meeting estimates
8:30 Empire state manufacturing surveyplunged to -20.9 missing estimates of -1.8
10:00 Business inventories came in as estimated at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence index fell to 37 from 42 prior
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing starts were a lot higher than expected coming in at 1.50 million
8:30 Building permits didn’t fall as deeply as expected, coming in at 1.46 billion
8:30 Import price index surprised and rose to 0.4%
9:15 Industrial production also surprised, rising 0.7%
9:15 Capacity Utilization was higher than estimated, coming in at 78.2%
Wednesday:
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision
2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 225,000 from 220,000
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is expected to drop to 10.0 from 18.1
10:00 Existing home sales are expected to drop to 3.95 million from 4.08 million
10:00 Leading economic indicators is expected to drop to -0.2% from 0.3%