Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 18 2021 – Bias Is Still Up

On Wednesday Fed Chair Powell made its clear that he expected to see interest rates near zero into 2023 and fears of inflation are overblown.  That pushed investors into stocks which saw the S&P and Dow indexes at new all-time highs and the NASDAQ just 650 points from its all-time high. The S&P ended the day up 11 points to 3974 within 26 points of reaching 4000, a major milestone for the S&P.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Mar 17 2021 

The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is continuing to widen. This remains bullish for the index. The closing candlestick on Wednesday was bullish for Thursday.

The index is nearing the Upper Bollinger Band and the 21 day moving average is rising again although the 50 day is climbing quicker than the 21 day. That should change if the S&P continues to climb.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

The chart is still more bullish for Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 17 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday March 11 2021. On Wednesday the up signal remains strong.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal for a eighth straight day, but is extremely overbought and the up signal is almost neutral. We could see a down signal from the Slow Stochastic on Thursday after the close.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is trending sideways, relatively unchanged and showing overbought readings.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4000 is resistance

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support and the 100 day is at this level

3700 is light support

3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.

3600 is strong support

3550 is support – The 200 day is at this level. A drop this low would be a 10% correction.

3500 is strong support

3450 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Mar 18 2021 

For Thursday the open should be higher and then stocks will most likely dip. The S&P has a good chance to brush 4000 on Thursday but the close will most likely be below it.

The technical indicators are still bullish and all are pointing to a choppy day but still higher for the index.

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