Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday finally announced a quarter point increase in the Fed funds rate and surprisingly the initial reaction was for markets to drop. The drop lasted 30 minutes and was followed by a massive rally. By the end of the day the S&P was higher by 95 points to close at 4357 and the NASDAQ rose an impressive 488 points to 13436.55.
This left the S&P down less than 1% for the month of March and 8.5% since the start of the year. For the NASDAQ it is down 2.2% for the month and 14% for 2022.
Let’s review the closing technical signals from Wed Mar 16 2022 to see what is in-store for investors on Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Mar 16 2022
There were some changes in the S&P chart following Wednesday’s close.
The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to turn lower but the Lower Bollinger Band is starting to turn sideways which could signal an interim bottom should be expected.
The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bullish. Often this type of candlestick will see some selling intraday but a higher close.
The SPX now has 4 down signals in place but the closing candlestick is back above the 21 day and could reach the 200 day on Thursday.
All the major moving averages are falling lower including the 200 day. The 21 day moving average however is starting to turn sideways, a sign of the beginning of a recovery.
The chart remains bearish as of Wednesday’s close but is pointing to the likelihood of another positive day on Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 16 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Mar 7 2022 . A new unconfirmed up signal was issued on Wednesday at the close. The MACD histogram also turned positive and moved higher.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and turned positive for a second day.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic still has an up in place.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive for a second day.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising for a third straight day.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4500 is resistance
4490 is light resistance
4475 is light resistance
4450 is light resistance
4400 is resistance
4370 is light resistance
4350 is light resistance
4300 is good support
4290 is light support
4270 is light support
4250 is good support
4225 is light support
4200 is good support
4150 is good support
4000 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Mar 17 2022
The technical indicators on Wednesday are turning positive and starting to rise. A new unconfirmed up signal was generated by the MACD technical indicators by the close of trading on Wednesday. I am expecting the up signal to be confirmed Thursday.
With the Fed’s interest rate finally out-of-the-way stocks can move higher with a major “unknown” event now known.
The candlestick on Wednesday typically predicts a pullback or dip intraday Thursday morning before moving higher. I will be buying SPY calls on any morning dip, especially if it is a deep dip as I expect any dip will quickly find buyers and the indexes will end the day higher.
For Thursday the indexes are poised to move higher for a third straight day.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Thu May 7 2026 – Bullish and Still Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 6 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
