Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 14 2024 – Back To More Inflation Numbers – Higher Close Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday investors spent a choppy day trading among market leaders both selling and others buying. By the close the SPX had lost just 10 points to close at 5165 and the NASDAQ lost 88 points to close at 16,177.

Volumes on both indexes was good with 4.4 billion traded on the SPX the best day since March 6 and 5 billion on the NASDAQ, the same volume as we saw on Monday.

The trend higher though in very much intact. On Wednesday the SPX had 282 new 52 week highs versus 180 new highs on Tuesday and 127 on Monday. New lows were just 23 on Wednesday. That compares to 24 on Tuesday and 19 on Monday.

The NASDAQ had 203 new highs versus 141 new highs on Tuesday and just 108 on Monday.

The bulls are very much in charge and just waiting for the next inflation read on Thursday when we get PPI numbers (Producer Price Index). As well we also get retail sales today.

Let’s review the close on Wed Mar 13 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Mar 14 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 13 2024

The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is signaling a choppy day for Thursday with the potential for a dip and even a possible lower close.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5070 on the SPX.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4930, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4592 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band though is falling to the 50 day. Tomorrow it may move below it. If it does, then we should expect stocks to move higher. If however the Upper Bollinger Band turns lower, then stocks are setting up to move lower.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Wednesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 13 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 14 2024 

For Thursday the morning will be dictated by the latest PPI numbers. After the initial move however, the technical indicators will come into play. They are somewhat mixed but the majority are flat or neutral rather than pointing down. I am expecting a choppy day with possibly deeper dips but a positive close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This is a busy week for reports with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday.

Monday:

No economic reports due out.

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer price index for February came in at 0.4%, up slightly from January’s 0.3%.

8:30 Core CPI came in at 0.4%

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 3.2% slightly higher than consensus.

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was at 3.8% slightly higher than forecast.

Wednesday:

No economic reports

Thursday:

8:30 Retails sales are expected to rise to 0.8% from -0.8% prior.

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Core PPI is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.6%

8:30 PPI year-over-year is expected at 0.9%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is expected unchanged at 2.6%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to reach 216,000

10:00 Business Inventories are estimated at 0.2% down from 0.4%