Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 14 2019 – Still Higher

With Boeing Stock stabilizing for much of the day on Thursday, the indexes turned mostly positive and climbed higher. Even a dip in the afternoon in Boeing Stock as President Trump announced a ban on the 737 MAX 8 and 9 jets was seen as an opportunity to buy the stock. Boeing closed positive on Wednesday. With added strength in the markets all three indexes turned in a decent performance and climbed higher.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Mar 13 2019 

With 4 up signals in place the S&P closed at the Upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday and left behind a bullish candlestick for Thursday. The index also closed above the 21 day moving average for the second day.

The Lower Bollinger Band is also moving higher and the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is now underway as you can see in the chart. At present it looks like the squeeze will end with the index moving higher but note how the Upper Bollinger Band is not rising which could be signaling that the next move will be back lower. My personal bias is however, higher for the index.

Overall the chart shows strength and the 50 day is also pushing higher. If it moves above the 200 day moving average next week, the SPX should move to 2825 to 2850. A move above the 200 day by the 50 day means I will be buying more SPY calls for April 18 expiry.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 13 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday February 28 2019. The sell signal was weaker on Wednesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and positive/

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place for Thursday.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is slowly rising which indicates higher prices are ahead.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Mar 14 2019 

The technical indicators more bullish than they have been earlier this week.

Thursday should see the index move higher but sellers are still lurking and there will be dips. The close though should be higher and above 2810.

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