Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday saw stocks trade in a 30 point range with 5483 on the high side and 5451 on the low. The index closed up 8 points to close at 5477. 57% of all volume was being traded to the downside on Wednesday and 54% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ rose 87 points closing at 17,805. Market breadth was better on the NASDAQ with 63% of all volume being traded higher but 50% of all stocks were falling. Still, the stats were not as negative as the SPX by the close on Wednesday.
With earnings from Micron Technology Stock (MU) seeming to concern investors after hours on Wednesday, we could see further weakness build in the SPX on Thursday.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wed Jun 26 2024 to see what to expect on Thu Jun 27 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 26 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday but indicates another bounce could occur.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4935 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5162.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. This is bullish but note that the Lower Bollinger Band is still turning up, which needs to be watched for any change in the trend.
The S&P chart is less bearish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 26 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Jun 6 2024. On Wed Jun 26 2024 the up signal was weaker. The MACD histogram lost more strength. You can see in the chart that the move lower in strength is steady for a fifth straight day. There is a good chance we may see a down signal this week from MACD indicator.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place but could issue an up signal on Thursday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Thursday could end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 27 2024
Micron Technology Stock (MU) fell after hours on Wednesday on the back of their latest quarterly earnings. I thought the earnings were strong but obviously a lot of investors disagreed as they sent the stock lower. On Thursday at the open, we could see the SPX open lower or slip lower. As well, other semi conductor stocks could also dip lower. On the other hand, investors may look at the latest earnings before the open and decide the numbers were good and buy into the stock, especially if it is depressed at the open.
Overall the technical indicators are continuing to signal there is weakness building in the index. Thursday could end lower on the day.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest economic events this week are Durable Goods on Thursday and PCE numbers on Friday.
Monday:
No economic reports but 3 Fed officials are speaking today.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index was expected to be unchanged at 7.4% but came in at 7.2%
10:00 Consumer confidence was expected to be 100 but came in at 100.4
Wednesday:
10:00 New home sales are expected to rise to 640,000 from 634,000 prior.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected at 235,000, down slightly from 238,000
8:30 GDP is expected to come in at 1.4%
8:30 Durable goods are expected to be unchanged at 0.4%
10:00 Pending home sales are estimated to rise to -0.4% from -7.7% prior