Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday stocks took a bit of a breather from their recent rally and closed relatively flat.
The S&P ended the day flat, down 0.02 to close unchanged at 6092. Volume was a bit lower at 5.2 billion which often indicates investors were not selling.
The NASDAQ ended the day up 61 points to 19973. The NASDAQ is ready to retake 20,000 where it was trading Feb 19. Wednesday was the third straight day of gains for the index..
Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Wed Jun 25 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu Jun 26 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 25 2025
The index closed unchanged and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5986 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5779 which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 200 day moving average for a 4th up signal. This wiped out the 2nd down signal from March. Only one down signal remains from March 7. The 50 day is now ready to move above the 100 day which will end the only remaining down signal from March 7.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5808 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5722 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is showing signs it may end with stocks higher.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 25 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling slightly and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal lost more strength on Wednesday which is readily evident in the chart.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Thursday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 26 2025
New home sales on Wednesday came in lower than estimated, at 623,000, down from 699,000 for the latest reading.
The SPX closed above the 6000 valuation again on Wednesday. This is the third straight day above 6000.
The technical indicators are not pointing lower despite the index closing flat on the day. Indeed, they are primarily pointing for the index to move higher.
On Thursday the outlook is for the index to close higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI icame in as expected at 53.1
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI came in as estimated at 52.0
10:00 Existing home sales for May rose more than estimated, reaching 4.03 million versus 4.0 million prior
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities is dipped far more than expected, coming in at 3.4%
10:00 Consumer confidence for June fell to 93.0 which was unexpected
10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Service Committee
Wednesday:
10:00 New home sales were worse than estimated, coming in at 623,000.
Thursday:
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is estimated at -$87.6 billion
8:30 Advanced retail inventories are estimated at -0.1%
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to come in slightly lower at 244,000
8:30 Durable-goods orders are expected to rise to 6.5%
8:30 GDP is estimated to rise to 0.2%
10:00 Pending home sales are estimated higher at -0.5%