Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 13 2024 – Overbought – Dips Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday the morning started with news that the CPI numbers were lower than any estimates which sent stocks higher. In the afternoon the Fed left interest rates unchanged and indicated one reduction was probable in 2024 but that the Fed’s inflation target was still not within reach. A late day rally attempt took the SPX to 5447 but sellers closed the index at 5421. It was a new all-time high and the first close above 5400 of the SPX. Many stocks were overbought by the close.

On the NASDAQ the index closed up 265 points to close at a new high of 17608 another new closing high.

Let review the closing technical signals from Wed Jun 12 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Jun 13 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 12 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and above the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish and signals overbought.

The closing candlestick is bullish but also indicates a dip is likely today with a potential lower close.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4886 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5103.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average but starting to turn sideways. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned higher as the SPX is in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze but may soon move out of it.

The S&P chart is bullish and the Bollinger Bands Squeeze looks like stocks will move higher out of the squeeze.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 12 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 13 2024 

With the i index above 5400 many stocks are overbought. The chance of a dip is high for Thursday with a possible lower close.

On Thursday investors get the latest PPI numbers before the open. We could see the index open flat although earnings from Broadcom were better than expected and the news of a 10 to 1 split is sure to get investors interest. The index may open higher and then dip.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This is a big week for economic numbers.

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

No reports

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index was expected to rise just 0.1% but did not rise at all.

8:30 CPI year-over-year was estimated unchanged at 3.4% but came in at 3.3%

8:30 Core CPI was estimated unchanged at 0.3% but came in at 0.2%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to drop to 3.5%

2:00 FOMC interest rate decision announcement

2:00 Monthly federal deficit was expected to drop to -262.5 billion

2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 225,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to rise 0.1%

8:30 Core PPI is expected at 0.2%