On Wednesday the S&P saw more weakness and a slightly lower close, but a drop of 6 points is not much of a concern at present.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jun 12 2019
On Wednesday the index closed above the 50 day moving average but left behind a bearish candlestick for a third day.
There is still one sell signal in play.
The Lower Bollinger Band is still turning up but the Upper Bollinger Band is also staring to turn up. There will not be a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.
Aside from the sell signal, the chart is very bullish with the major moving averages climbing higher. The 21 day moving average is turning back up.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday June 6. The up signal was stronger again on Wednesday despite the selling.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is falling.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal is pointing down for stocks and is overbought.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and it too is overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, indicating higher prices will be seen shortly.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
2950 is resistance
2900 is resistance
2860 is light support
2830 is light support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.
The 2500 level is support.
The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.
There is good support at 2425.
Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 13 2019
Thursday has mixed signals with the MACD up signal continuing to gain strength while the Slow Stochastic has changed from up to down.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling but momentum and the Rate Of Change is rising.
The mixed outlook is pointing to another day of dips and choppy trading but there is a strong chance of a positive close.