Stock Market Outlook For Thu Jun 12 2025 – Dips Likely – Possible Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wed Jun 11 2025 the latest inflation reading showed only a small rise of 0.1% which helped stocks start the day higher. But as the day wore on, more details emerged about the ongoing China-USA trade talks. While the Trump administration talked up the trade talks, there were few actual concrete details for investors. That brought in some selling. The NASDAQ saw volumes jump today.

The S&P closed down 16 points to 6022 on 5.2 billion shares traded. 50% of all trades were to the upside while 52% of all stocks were lower by the close.

The NASDAQ fell 99 points to close at 19615. Volume was 12.1 billion shares traded, the highest number of shhe NASDAQ rose 123 points to close at 19715. 60% of al stocks on the NASDAQ were rising by the close.

Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Wed Jun 11 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu Jun 12 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 11 2025

The index closed above all major moving averages and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday with two shadows which indicates dips likely today.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5931 which is bullish. There are now just two down signals left from the March 7 and Mar 14.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5653 which is bullish. The 50 day is turning higher toward the 200 day and could move above it by next week.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5766 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5695 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day with the Upper Bollinger Band falling into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. At present it looks like the index could fall back as the squeeze gets underway but it is too early to give much of an accurate reading.

For Thu Jun 12 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but some signals advise caution as the index could pullback for a few days..

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 11 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 12 2025 

For Thu Jun 12 2025 stocks will try a rebound but mostly fail. The day will be choppy with the possibility of a lower close.  On Thursday we get the latest PPI numbers. If they are below estimates, watch for the rally to dip further.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Wholesale inventories were better than estimated, coming in at 0.2% versus 0.4% prior

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose more than expected to 98.8

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1%, below estimates

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in as estimated at 2.4%

8:30 Core CPI was lower than estimated, at 0.1%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was below estimates at 2.8%

2:00 Monthly US Federal Budget is estimated at -$310 billion.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is expected to slip to 246,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to rise to 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI is estimated at 0.3% from – 0.1% prior

8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 2.4%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is estimated at 2.9% unchanged.

8