Day’s Summary
Wednesday saw stocks drift lower by the close as investors digested the latest FOMC minutes. The minutes suggest the Fed will continue to hike rates but at probably quarter point increases on a bi-monthly basis into the end of the year.
The SPX closed down 8 points to 4446 and the NASDAQ closed down 25 points to 13,791.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wednesday to see if stocks can push higher on Thu Jul 6 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 5 2023
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish but above all major moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and pushing still higher above the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The SPX is entering a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 5 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Jul 3 which was confirmed today.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is resistance |
| 4340 is resistance |
| 4325 is resistance |
| 4310 is resistance |
| 4300 is resistance |
| 4290 is resistance |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4190 is support |
| 4180 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 6 2023
For Thursday the technical indicators are signaling some weakness probably in the morning but the market remains bullish. The MACD technical indicator confirmed Monday’s up signal. A higher close is expected but even a lower close will not signal an end to the rally.
If the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are higher we should see stocks climb. On Friday we get the June unemployment report. Any sign the labor market is softening will assist stocks initially.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Thursday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected to come in at 220,000
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 245,000
8:30 Trade deficit
9:45 S&P Flash services PMI
10:00 ISM services