Stock Market Outlook For Thu Jul 31 2025 – Higher Thanks To Microsoft and META Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Wed Jul 30 2025 stocks slipped lower while waiting on earnings from Microsoft, META and others. The Fed didn’t help stocks any as they kept interest rates unchanged continuing to cite concerns about possible tariff induced inflation. I have been trading since the 1970’s and I have not seen a time when the Fed tries to setup policy based on their prediction of what they think could happen. Instead they base interest rate decisions on what is happening. However the present Fed seems intent on trying to guess what they think will happen and base their policies on future expectations. They seem to have moved from being “data dependent” by their own admission to “data prediction”. This could once again be a mistake as interest rate changes take months to work their way into the economy, both decreases and increases in interest rates.  However I’m not an economist, just an investor.

The day ended with the SPX down slightly by 8 points to 6363 and the NASDAQ up slightly by 31 points to 21129.

Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Jul 30 2025 to see what they predict for Thu Jul 31 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 30 2025

The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band which is a bit bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish but with long shadows which usually indicate a bounce is likely intraday.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6294 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6116 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5991 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5841 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to rise and above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze commenced on Wednesday last week. At present the outlook is for stocks to move higher out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Thu Jul 31 2025.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 30 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 31 2025 

On Wednesday the economic reports showed the economy is continuing to do well with GDP coming in at 3.0%, well above estimates of 2.3%

For Thursday, strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta as well as a handful of other companies, should be enough to propel the index higher.

With the technical indicators all pointing lower, I am expecting a switch to a higher close on Thursday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

There are no events

Tuesday:

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods surprised strongly with $86.0 billion easily beating estimated of -$96.4 billion.

8:30 Advanced retail inventories icame in as estimated at 0.3%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories was stronger than estimated, at 0.2%

9:00 Case Shiller home price index was lower than estimated at 2.8%

10:00 Consume confidence was higher than estimated at 97.2

10:00 Job openings were lower than estimated at 7.4 million

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP Employment is expected to rise to 64,000 but rose to 104,000 instead

8:30 GDP rose to 3.0% well beyond estimates of 2.3%

10:00 Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.2% but instead fell -0.8%

2:00 Fed Chair Powell announces latest interest rate decision and attends news conference

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 222,000

8:30 Personal income s estimated to fall to 0.8% from 0.9%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to rise to 0.4% from -0.1% prior

8:30 PCE Index is estimate to rise to 0.3% from 0.1% prior

8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.5% from 2.3% prior

8:30 Core PCE index is estimated unchanged at 0.2%

9:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to remain unchanged at 2.7%