Prior Trading Day Summary:
Typically the day before the monthly job numbers tends to be higher almost 85% of the time since my records going back to 1975. On Wed Jul 2 2025 history repeated itself with stocks rising ahead of tomorrow’s job numbers.
The S&P rose 29 points to close at 6227. Volume was 5.7 billion shares, 600 million shares lower than yesterday’s volume. 72% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ rose 190 points to end the day at 20,393 just 25 points below a new all-time high.
For Thursday, the start of the day will be determined by the outcome of June’s non-farm payroll report.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Wed Jul 2 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Jul 3 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 2 2025
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6051 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5867 which is bullish. The 50 day is continuing above the 100 day moving average.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5844 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5745 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and turning lower which is bullishl. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The outlook is bullish for stocks.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 2 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu June 26. On Wed Jul 2 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Thursday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 3 2025
The ADP report came in far below estimates, at -33,000. In other words, 33,000 jobs were lost. Stocks wavered in the morning but moved higher into the close on Wednesday.
For Thu Jul 3 2025 the morning will be influenced by the June non-farm payroll report. If the index pulls back, I will be setting up another SPY ETF Market Direction Portfolio trade. I don’t expect any dip to last more than a day or two at present.
In the afternoon, the technical indicators will have more influence and at present they are all pointing higher for stocks.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 Chicago Business Barometer for June came in at 40.5 which was slightly better than expected
Tuesday:
9:30 Fed Chair Powell speech
9:45 S&P final US manufacturing PMI was higher than estimated, coming in at 52.9
10:00 Construction spending was lower than estimated at -0.3%
10:00 Job openings was higher than estimated, coming in at 7.8 billion.
10:00 ISM manufacturing was higher than estimated at 49%
During the day auto sales are being released. They are estimated at 15.4 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment fell to -33,000 far below estimates of 100,000 new jobs
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 240,000
8:30 June employment report is estimated to show 110,000 new jobs were created in June
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 4.3%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated to rise 0.3%
8:30 Trade deficit is estimated to fall to -$71.2 billion
9:45 Final services PMI is estimated at 53.2, down from 53.7 prior.
10:00 Factory orders are estimated to rise to 8.2% from -3.7% prior
10:00 ISM services are estimated to rise to 50.5% from 49.9% prior