Day’s Summary
Wed Jul 19 saw stocks continue their advance on strong volume but with ore profit-taking. The close saw stocks clinging to gains as investors took some profits in what has been an excellent rally.
The SPX closed up 10 points to 4565. The NASDAQ rose 4 points to end the day at 14358.
Many investors are aware of the overbought nature of the present rally and took advantage of closing some positions to lock in gains.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wednesday to see if the rally will slow or stall on Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 19 2023
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band and all moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bearish, signaling overbought for Thursday. Dips should be expected.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The SPX Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ended as the Lower Bollinger Band is now below the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 19 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Jul 13. The up signal was stronger on Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and near overbought levels.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place. It is overbought and could issue a down signal by the close on Thursday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and very overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 20 2023
For Thursday the technical indicators are showing the rally as overbought and ready for a sideways to down day. There are a lot of buyers still waiting for dips to get capital back working and that means on Thursday, dips may not be very deep. The close though looks to be negative.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 240,000
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is expected to be -10.0 an improvement from last month’s -13.7
10:00 Existing home sales are expected to slip slightly to 4.2 million from 4.3 million.
10:00 US leading economic indicators are estimated at -0.6% up slightly from -0.7%