Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Jul 16 2025 markets were focused on the White House and comments from President Trump on whether he plans to fire Fed Chair Powell. He indicated he was not planning on it which was all the market needed to end the day higher. For the most part, bank earnings on Wednesday were ignored by investors.
The SPX rose 20 points to close at 6263 on 5.2 billion shares traded. 62% of the volume was being traded to the upside.
The NASDAQ closed up 52 points to 20,730 on 9.4 billion shares traded. 75% of today’s volume was traded to the upside.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Jul 16 2025 to see where the indexes are headed on Thu Jul 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 16 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for the 8th day.
The closing candlestick had a long shadow which signals a bounce is likely on Thursday. This is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6163 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6001 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5912 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5788 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and still below the 50 day moving average. The rising is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 16 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Wed Jul 16 2025 the down signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is turning back up.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close is expected today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 17 2025
For Thu Jul 17 2025 the SPX is dealing with a confirmed MACD down signal.
Despite this, there are enough technical indicators that are signaling a move higher is more likely, that investors could ignore the MACD down signal made on Wed Jul 16 2025.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
no events are scheduled
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index for Junecame in at 0.3% as estimated
8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 2.7% from 2.4%
8:30 Core CPI is dipped to 0.2% from 0.3% prior.
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 2.9% up from 2.8% prior.
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey for July came in at 5.5, up from -16.0 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 Producer Price Index fell to 0.0% which was below estimates
8:30 Core PPI came in at 0.0% which was below estimates of 0.2%
8:30 PPI year-over-year came in lower than estimated, at 2.3%.
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year came in lower than estimated at 2.5%
9:15 Industrial production did not dip but rose 0.3%
9:15 Capacity utilization rose beyond estimates to 77.6%.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 234,000
8:30 US Retail Sales are expected to come in at 0.1%
8:30 Import price index is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.0%
10:00 Business inventories are estimated to stay neutral at 0.0%
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated to rise slightly to 33 from 32 prior.