For Wednesday the inflation report came in at 1.3% for the month of June and 9.1% year-over-year which was quite a shocker.
Despite this, the markets which opened considerably lower, spent almost the entire day climbing back from the early morning sell-off.
The S&P closed down 17 points to 3801 while the NASDAQ also lost 17 points to close at 11,247.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wednesday to see what they are predicting for Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jul 13 2022
On Wednesday the chart become still more bearish. The closing candlestick is bearish and closed below the 21 day moving average.
The Upper Bollinger Band continues collapsing and is below the 50 day for a second day. This is bearish. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is now underway and the squeeze looks set to send the S&P lower.
All the moving averages are falling with the 50 and 21 day now still falling rapidly. Note how through the latest rally none of the moving averages changed direction from down to up. This is a signal more downside is coming for stocks.
There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.
The chart is back to 100% bearish for tomorrow.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 13 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and almost positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Wednesday the up signal weakened as did the MACD histogram.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating we could see bigger swings tomorrow in the SPX, up or down.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light support
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jul 14 2022
The technical indicators are mixed for Thursday with half pointing higher and half pointing lower. The Rate Of Change is advising that we could see some bigger moves in the market on Thursday.
A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is now underway and at the outset it looks like it will send the index lower. For Thursdays I am expecting a mixed day both with swings up and down but an eventual lower close.
On Thursday investors get the monthly producer price index at 8:30 and the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also at 8:30.
To update investors, I am still suffering with this kidney stone. Extremely painful would be an understatement but some new medication was started today so perhaps some hope for this calamity. I was advised that this could take two to three weeks to work out. Fingers crossed they are wrong. For those who have had kidney stones in the past, I’m sure you understand the painful session this brings.
Thank you to all investors who have emailed me or tweeted with their kind words of encouragement. They are definitely appreciated.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
