Day’s Summary
Wednesday saw stocks shoot higher with the latest CCPI report showing an unexpected decline of 0.2% from the prior month and 4.8% rather than 5% for year-over-year results. Both the SPX and NASDAQ made new 52 week highs on Wednesday.
The S&P closed up 32 points to 4472 and the NASDAQ closed up 158 points to 13919. Many analysts indicated after the close on Wednesday that the Fed may have orchestrated the sought after soft landing for the economy. Some predicted the Fed will not raise rates again this year.
Stocks had an excellent day on more volume than we have seen lately. The S&P saw 4 billion shares traded and the NASDAQ 5.4 billion.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wednesday to see what we should expect for Thursday’s market.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 12 2023
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band and all moving averages which is bullish. The candlestick is bullish for Thursday but is also signaling that dips should be expected intraday as many stocks are overbought.
The closing candlestick on Wednesday points to a higher day on Thursday by the close.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and pushing still higher above the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning up which is bullish. The SPX is still in the latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 12 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 6. On Wed Jul 12 2023 the down signal lost more strength but continues to signal down for the SPX.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is near overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply and into overbought readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 13 2023
For Thursday the technical indicators are a bit mixed but the general consensus is bullish and positive. That means dips on Thursday are opportunities to setup trades as the SPX will try to reach 4500 this week.
There are four new support levels in the SPX. They are 4350, 4340, 4325 and 4310. There are three new resistance levels. These are 4500, 4485 and 4470.
On Thursday investors get the producer price index, core and year-over-year. Any change from what the CPI was telling investors on Wednesday could see stocks pullback although overall the markets are very bullish and will move higher even if Thursday is lower.
The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims on Thursday are expected to be almost unchanged at 250,000.
Overall Thursday will see some dips as many stocks are overbought, but those will be opportunities to setup more trade. The outlook is bullish for the rest of the week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Thursday
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 250,000
8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to be 0.2%
8:30 Core PPI is expected to come in at 0.1%
8:30 PPI year-over-year and core PPI year over year
2:00 Federal budget is expected to be -$175 billion