Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 1 2021 – Higher Ahead Of June’s Jobs Report

Wednesday saw another new closing high pushing to 4302 intraday and closing at 4297.

Volume picked up on Wednesday ending the month of June with a gain of 2.2%. For the year the S&P is up 14.4%.

Let’s review the close on Wednesday to see what the technical indicators are advising for the first trading day of July.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jun 30 2021 

The S&P closed once again at the Upper Bollinger Band which is pressuring the Upper Bollinger Band to rise. The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is ending the most recent Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bullish for the first day of July.

The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing. The 21 day moving average is climbing further above the 50 day. These are all bullish signals.

At the close on Wednesday there were no bearish signals in the chart.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 30 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday June 25. That up signal was stronger on Wednesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is back rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and is signaling extremely overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4300 is resistance

4290 is resistance

4270 is resistance

4250 is resistance

4225 is light support

4200 is light support and where the 50 day moving average rests

4175 is light support

4150 is light support

4100 is light support

4070 is very light support

4050 is light support and just below the 100 day moving average rests

4000 is good support

3900 is support

3850 is support and just below the 200 day moving average

3800 is support

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jul 1 2021 

For the first day of July the historical outlook is for a higher day. Over the past 35 years the first day has seen a gain on average of half a percent.

The outlook is bullish but again, all the technical indicators except the Slow Stochastic are pointing higher and often that signals a down day coming soon.

Friday we get the unemployment numbers for June and normally the day before sees a late in the day rally so expect that on Thursday.

Overall the indicators are supporting another move higher on Thursday so dips today are opportunities to setup trades.

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