On Wednesday stocks started the day higher and climbed 50 points to end the day at 3969 for a 1.28% gain in a day of heavier volume that saw just 5 new 52 week lows. Considering that two weeks ago there were 180 new lows, you can see the strength of the rally.
The NASDAQ rose 189 points to close at 10931 and is ready to move back above 11,000. On the NASDAQ there were just 31 new 52 week lows. Two weeks earlier there were 507 new 52 week lows. This shows investors that the rally is broad-based at present.
The MACD up signal gained further strength and the index is showing a large amount of strength.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from the SPX on Wed Jan 11 to see what to expect for Thu Jan 12.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jan 11 2023
On Wed Jan 11 the S&P closed above the 21, 50 and 100 day moving averages for a second day which is bullish. The index closed just below 4000 which is where the 200 day is trending. A close above the 200 day would be very bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday but is also signaling that the market is becoming a bit overbought and a dip is likely on Thursday morning.
The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn up which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is starting to turn down which is also bullish.
The 200 and 100 day moving averages are falling which is bearish but the 21 day is turning back up and the 50 day is ready to push above the 100 day which would be a major up signal.
At present there are are 6 down signals in place since April 24 and no up signals.
The chart though is 50% bearish for Thursday, the highest percentage of bullishness since early December when the index was also pushing above the 200 day moving average.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 11 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Jan 9. The up signal was stronger today. The histogram also is gaining strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and rising sharply.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and into overbought readings which is a good sign for the bulls.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and finally turned positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4050 is resistance
4030 is resistance
4025 is resistance
4000 is resistance
3975 is resistance
3965 is resistance
3950 is resistance
3925 is resistance
3900 is light support
3875 is light support
3850 is good support
3830 is good support
3810 is light support
3800 is good support
3775 is good support
3750 is good support
3730 is light support
3725 is light support
3715 is light support
3700 is good support
3685 is light support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jan 12 2023
For Thursday morning, the CPI reports along with the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims will take center stage. Core CPI is expected to rise to 0.3%. Any higher rise will probably see stocks open lower. CPI for the year is expected to come in lower at 6.5%. If it is above 7.1% expect stocks to move lower. Core CPI year-over-year is expected to be lower at 5.7%. Any number above 6% will probably spook investors. The initial jobless claims are estimated to be 210,000 slightly higher than the prior week. A higher number will support stocks moving higher. Too high a number will concern investors that the economy is or headed to a “soft-landing” which the Fed is trying to engineer.
Aside from the economic reports, the technical reports are strongly bullish for stocks to potentially slip a bit in the morning but close back at or slightly above 4000 on Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
For Thursday I have mentioned above the various economic reports that will impact stocks today. For Friday investors get the 1 year and 5 year inflation expectations and consumer sentiment index. These could also move markets.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
