Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday stocks started off slow but then commenced a rally which saw the index reach 4790.80 within 2.5 points of the 52 week high. The SPX closed up 27 points to 4783 on low volume but steady buying.
The NASDAQ rose 112 points for a gain of 0.75% lead once again by tech stocks. The index closed at 14969.
The day saw steady buying pressure of many big cap stocks and the SPX is ready to make a new all-time high on Thursday if the CPI numbers come in as expected.
While the CPI numbers will determine market direction at the open, the technical indicators will still have a say even if the market drops initially should the numbers disappoint.
Let’s review Wed Jan 10 2024 closing technical indicators to see what to expect for tomorrow.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jan 10 2024
The index closed above the 21 day and just below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday with no long shadows indicated a bullish day is expected.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 50 day moving average and with the Upper Bollinger Band dipping lower, the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway. Initial signals are for stocks to move higher but as investors know, there are never guarantees in investing.
The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 10 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and just positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jan 2. The down signal lost strength on Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling stocks should stay bullish.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is resistance |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 11 2024
For Thursday technical signals are advising that even if the morning drops due to disappointing CPI numbers, markets will stay bullish and any drop should not be deep and should recover some or all of any losses while waiting for the PPI numbers and bank earnings due Friday.
If the CPI numbers meet or are slightly weaker than expected, indexes will advance on Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main economic reports this week are on Thursday when we get the CPI numbers and Friday when the latest PPI numbers are released.
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was expected at $8 billion but came in at a stunning $23.7 billion which could be construed as inflationary
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade deficit is expected to come in at -$64.7 billion but came in at -$63.2 billion
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories came in as expected at -0.2%
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 210,000
8:30 CPI for Dec is expected to rise to 0.2%
8:30 Core CPI for Dec is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is expected to rise slightly to 3.2%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to slip from 4.0% to 3.8%
2:00 Budget statement for Dec expected to rise to -$75 billion