Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 29 2024 – PCE Numbers – Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wed Feb 28 2024 stocks traded primarily sideways and the SPX ended the day with a small loss of 8 points, closing at 5069. Trading volume was steady at 3.9 billion. 51% of all stocks were falling on the index.

The NASDAQ ended the day down 87 points to close at 15,947. Trading volume rose by 200 million shares to 5.7 billion. 59% of all stocks were falling on the index.

Let’s review Wednesday’s closing technical indicators to see what we should expect for Thu Feb 29 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Feb 28 2024

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday which remains bullish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 4975 on the SPX.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4850 which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4530 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze and originally appeared to signal a move higher out of the squeeze but that outlook is changing to lower out of the squeeze.

The S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish for Thu Feb 29 2024.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Feb 28 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 29 2024 

For Thursday the technical indicators are showing further weakness but none are signaling a stronger move lower is coming. Today’s action depends on the PCE numbers due out before the open. If the numbers show some weakness, that will be good for the Fed’s decision on lowering interest rates. Stocks should rally. A higher PCE indicates inflation is remaining steady or possibly climbing which will be negative for stocks on Thursday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This is a busy week for reports including durable goods order on Tuesday, retail and wholesale inventories on Wednesday, PCE on Thursday and manufacturing on Friday.

Monday:

10:00 New home sales are expected to dip but instead they rose by 10,000 to 661,000

Tuesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders were expected to drop to -5.0% from 0.0% but fell -6.1% showing weakness in the economy may be developing.

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index wasexpected to be unchanged but instead rose to 6.1%

10:00 Consumer confidence for February was expected to rise to 115 from 114.8 but instead fell to 106.7

Wednesday:

8:30 GDP revision was expected at 3.3% but came in at 3.2%

8:30 Advanced retail inventories was expected at 0.4% but came in at 0.5%

8:30 Advanced whole inventories was expected at 0.7% but came in at -0.1%

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 210,000

8:30 Personal income is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to be lower at 0.2%

8:30 PCE Index is expected to rise slightly to 0.3%

8:30 Core PCE is expected to rise to .4%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated at 2.4%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated at 2.8%

9:45 Chicago business barometer (PMI) is expected to rise to 48.0

10:00 Pending home sales are estimated to fall to 1.5% from 8.3%