On Wednesday retails sales came in much stronger than expected. Analysts were surprised by the continued strength of the consumer. The projection was for retails sales to come in at 1.9%. Instead they came in at 3% and 2.3% excluding autos. To add to a picture of a stronger outlook, the Empire state manufacturing index was expected to come in at -20.3 but instead came in at -5.8. Even the NAHB home builders index beat all estimates and came in at 41 versus expectations of 37. All the numbers point to an economy that continues to defy economists and the Fed. Stocks opened lower to start the day but not as low as Tuesday’s dip after stronger than expected Core CPI numbers. Buyers picked away at stocks all day and closed the index still higher. It should be pointed out that Tuesday’s initial bounce off the CPI numbers took the SPX to a high of 4158. Wednesday’s rally did not break above Tuesday’s intraday high.
Many of the companies reporting earnings after the close on Wednesday beat estimates including Roku, Cisco, Kinross, and Twilio. These will help the market on Thursday.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from the SPX on Wed Feb 15 to see what to expect for Thu Feb 16.
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Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Feb 15 2023
On Wed Feb 15 the index closed higher. The closing candlestick is below the Upper Bollinger Band but still above the 200 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.
The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing higher which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is also continuing higher, which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising which is bullish. All the remaining major averages are still rising including the 21 day.
At present there are 2 down signals in place since April 24 and 4 up signals since Jan 13.
The chart is 75% bullish for Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Feb 15 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Jan 9. The up signal remained as an unconfirmed down signal. The MACD histogram also stayed negative.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4250 is resistance
4220 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4180 is resistance
4150 is resistance
4125 is resistance
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4075 is light support
4050 is support
4030 is light support
4025 is light support
4000 is light support
3975 is light support
3965 is light support
3950 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Feb 16 2023
The technical indicators after the close on Wednesday have swung around again to show further strength following the better than expected Retail Sales numbers. Even the MACD signal did not confirm a down signal from Tuesday’s close.
Thursday will see some dips and choppy trading at times but the outlook remains higher for the S&P.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
On Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, Building Permits and Housing Starts which may impact stocks slightly.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 200,000
8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to come in at 0.4%
8:30 Building Permits are expected to be 1.35 million
8:30 Housing starts are expe3cted to be 1.35 million
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is expected to report -7.8 a slightly improvement from -8.9
11:00 Household debt
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
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Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
