Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 14 2019 – Choppy Dips Likely But Higher

Stock indexes on Wed Feb 13 2019 continued their advance but at a much slower pace. Investors are waiting for news from the China trade talks. As well sellers kept pushing stocks back each time they rose above 2750 on Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Feb 13 2019 

The S&P is still bearish with 6 sell signals.

A new up signal was generated today as the 21 day moving average reached the 100 day moving average. The S&P closed today at its highest level since Dec 3.

The market now has two up signals.

The 200 and 100 day moving averages are not changing and both are continuing to slowly fall. The 50 day is rising.

The index closed above the 200 day moving average on Wednesday but the closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday.

The Lower Bollinger Band and the Upper Bollinger Band are still climbing indicating there is more upside ahead for the S&P.

The chart is still predominantly bearish but there continue to be signals that the index can push higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Feb 13 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was weak again on Wednesday but still bullish.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal was sideways on Wednesday.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Thursday and is still overbought. This is now bullish.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising which is bullish.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating higher prices lie ahead. This is bullish.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is light support.

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Feb 14 2019 

The technical indicators are a bit mixed but still showing more bullish signs than bearish ones. We are going to see a choppy day on Thursday and there will be some dips, but the index should still close higher. Any negative news on the China trade talks will send stocks lower.

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