Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 13 2025 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday inflation fears rose again among investors as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in higher than estimatedand above the prior readings. Stocks opened considerably lower to start the day but spent the remainder of the day climbing to recover most of the morning opening losses..

By the close the SPX was down just 16 points to 6052 and the NASDAQ was up 6 points to 19650.

By the close, 69% of all stocks on New York were falling. On the NASDAQ 56% of all stocks were falling.

The close of the day on Wednesday saw an unconfirmed MACD technical down signal generated.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Feb 12 2025to see what to expect for Thu Feb 13 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Feb 12 2025

The index closed below the 21 day moving average and still lower than Thursday last week. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is continuing to move above the 50 day moving average which is a major up signal.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6033which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6004 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5891 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5667 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. If this trend continues we will see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze which looks more positioned to see stocks move lower.

For Thursday the SPX chart is slightly more bullish than bearish, but the bearish signals are pronounced.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Feb 12 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 13 2025 

For Thursday the day starts with an unconfirmed down signal from the MACD indicator. This is one of the more accurate indicators and has not missed a signal, up or down, in two years. This means there is a good chance we will see further weakness.

On Thursday investors get the latest Producer Price Index numbers which, if they are higher than estimated, will weigh on stocks just as the CPI numbers did on Wednesday.

For Thursday watch for the MACD down signal to be confirmed, by the SPX ending the day lower.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No events

Tuesday:

10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to Congress

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer prince index rose 0.5% versus 0.3% estimated

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 3% from 2.9% prior

8:30 Core CPI rose to 0.4% from 0.2% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.3% from 3.2% prior

10:00 Fed Chair Powell continues testimony to Congress

2:00 Monthly federal budget came in at 129$ billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to fall to 215,000 from 219,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% prior

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to rise 0.2% from 0.2% prior

8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 3.3%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%